A seesaw situation for UPA

The two-day special session of the Parliament begins Monday with a blend of hope and despair. Doubts are many, but questions on each and every lips are same-what and how will happen and each eyeball looking into others asking a mute question- will the government survive or the oppositions to the deal send the UPA on back foot in perpetuity?

Whatever be the outcome; either the government survive or lose the trust vote, one thing is clear that Dr. Manmohan Singh is going to remain the prime minister till the next elections. If the government wins the trust vote, no question arises; but even in case of losing the trust vote, Dr. Manmohan Singh will remain the prime minister as the head of a minority government. This is because even if oppositions win the vote of confidence and despite greatest back up by Left to Mayawati as a prime ministerial candidate, BJP will never and ever give its accord to her.

Secondly, fall of the government would mean early elections and possible cancellation of the controversial nuclear deal. Though a report from PMO few days ago signalled that deal will be concluded, no matter the government survives or falls. But, possibly Dr. Manmohan Singh would not like to continue the deal as a head of the minority government. This case is also backed by the repeated statements issuing from Prime Minister and the External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee that a minority government has no right to enter into an international deal especially on an issue likely to have a far-reaching impact.

Although nothing is clear yet which way the vote of confidence is going to move, the government's defeat will certainly be a boost for the BJP, which already has won a string of state polls this year amid soaring inflation and criticism claiming that a number of destitute people were not getting any advantage from the booming economy.

Not going long back to the history of 'vote of confidence,' the recent one in 1999 is sufficient to haunt Dr. Manmohan Singh-led UPA government when Vajpayee-led NDA government lost a confidence vote by a margin of just one vote.

The race is so tough and the stakes are so high that the government had to hunt for six jailbird MPs to seek their support in the war of vote race. The lawmakers residing in distant places are paying for charter flights so as to mark their presence for the crucial trust vote- which has completely shifted from the issue of nuclear deal, over which the Left withdrew support to the government and the Congress-led UPA had to call for the confidence motion, to the question of individuals' and party's power, prestige, one's political interest and future and many other reasons.

The dooms of Sunday, on one hand, brought some disappointment for the UPA in the wake of JD-S (Janata Dal-Secular) and RLD's (Rashtriya Lok Dal) announcement to vote against the government on Tuesday during trust vote, while on the other hand Guruji (Shibu Soren), the chief of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha's (JMM) decision to conditional support to the government acted as an ointment for it and aroused some hope of winning the trust vote. Despite JMM's support, the RLD and JD-S'-accumulating six vital votes together- turning against the UPA is a huge loss to it, which could be disastrous for the government as whether the UPA win or loss the floor test, that would be decided on a margin of votes.

Yet again it has become evident that war on Kurukshetra between Kauravas and Pandavas is not a matter of distant past. In present times too, it is been fought as is happening at the political battle ground now-a-days. Army from Pandavas and Kauravas, here UPA and oppositions respectively, have appeared on the floor of parliament to confront each-other for the decisive war to save or crash the government.

The battle ground though is ready to be set on fire, but the hunt of 'Vibhishan' is still in process as one Vibhishan at this time has the power to turn the war. Some warriors (MPs) already have changed their sides and now one or two changes would be sufficient to turn the game. Brijbhushan Singh Sharan, a rebel BJP has deflected towards Samajwadi Party and on the other side a rebel MP from Congress, Kuldeep Bishnoi, son of former Haryana CM Bhajan Lal has already decided to vote against UPA on trust motion, though it has yet not decided to join BJP or NDA. Besides, five rebellious MPs from Samajwadi Party have turned to BSP. Two JD (U) MPs- P P Koya and Ram Swaroop Prasad openly announced to support the government on trust vote.

UPA is hoping to win the trust vote with the support of some minor party leaders and also have convinced for the likely abstentions in two-day special sessions of Lok Sabha by some Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal and BJP lawmakers.

The prime minister will kick off the confidence motion with an opening statement, followed by a parliamentary debate and a final electronic vote, expected on Tuesday evening.