The World Trade Organisation has predicted that this year the overall world trade growth rate is likely to decline as against last year’s due to recession in the global market and weak demands of exports and imports especially from US and European market, which are major leaders in global trading.
According to World Trade Statistics (WTS) - 2008, ‘global trade growth would fall to 4.5% as against last year’s 5.5% due to a sharp economic declination in the key developed nations. Despite strong growth in emerging economies like China and India, it would not enough to check the declination in growth rate of world trade that is continuously decreasing since last five quarters. In 2006, the total growth rate in WTO was 8.5%.’
‘The growth rate for key developed nation is likely to be 1.1% while these emerging developing nations would show better performance with 5% growth rate in world trade’ as reported World Trade Statistics (WTS). This report was compiled and released by WTO in its official website.
However, China will continue to be leader in the global growth rate of world trading. India, on the other hand may likely to be static in the growth rate and it would be difficult for India to reach its ambitious export target of $200-million.
“The continued turmoil in financial markets and the downside risks, including inflationary tendencies, are a cause for concern,” said Patrick Low, chief economist, WTO describing the reason behind economic recession.
“Exports, however, are expected to grow, sustained by a strong real effective depreciation and excess capacity in the US economy caused by sluggish domestic demand,” said WTO.
Last year in the export of commercial service India could step ahead only two ranks marking 11th position with worth of USD 86-billion while in the merchandise trade category it could entitle the eighteenth position with USD 145-billion.
In comparison to India, China secured seventh position with worth of USD 127-billion in export of commercial service while achieved better position in merchandise rank list getting second position after Germany with worth of USD 1.2-trillion.
In the import sector, India was on the twelfth position in the world with worth of USD 217-billion while China was too ahead to India and acquired the third rank only after US and European Union.
“Developing countries, whose share of world merchandise trade reached a new record of 34 per cent last year, along with economies of the former Soviet Union, are expected to contribute more than a half of the global import growth in 2008,” reported WTS.
While, ‘the depreciation of US dollar in relation to the euro and other currencies inflated the dollar values of international trade transactions’ is also a major reason of affecting world trade in the entire globe as per WTO reported in the release.
|
|
Comments:
