Will India clinch NSG waiver?

Whether the last day of the two-day Vienna meeting of the NSG countries, holding deliberations for granting waiver to India, allow it to conduct nuclear trade with its 45-memeber nations, is a big question. Will India notch enough in NSG meeting and clinch exemption? The meeting of the NSG countries which commenced on Thursday concluded with variant feelings-whether pro-waiver countries are expecting to get nod of NSGs on Friday, the against-waiver are eyeing on another round of deliberations on a later date.

If the latter is given a way to go through, it will put a challenge on USA whether it would be able to make their September 8-deadline for Congress as the next round of discussions, if held, might not be scheduled before September.

The much-awaited morning for India and US commenced on Thursday put Indian officials on their toes. Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon briefed all 45 members of the NSG referring its past record of as proof of its commitment to non-proliferations and concerns about the nuclear deal blow a hole in the non-proliferation regime.

New Zealand, Austria, Switzerland and Ireland were the chief dissidents opposing for such an exemption to India. They questioned the rational for waiver to India when it was not a signatory to the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). These countries’ apprehension about violation of deal was also allayed by some other countries like Canada and Japan who came out in favour of the deal with some suggestions. The powerful permanent five countries USA, France, China, Russia and Britain are in favour of the deal and hoped to get NSG waiver by Friday.

As per the diplomats who took part in the meeting, a number of countries came out with suggestions offering “ideas and concepts” which they felt US needs to incorporate in its waiver proposal. These ideas did not pointed out any concrete amendments but given task to US find ways in which the NSG could have “more confidence” in India standing by its non-proliferation commitments and come back to the NSG meeting on Friday.

Though it is not clear what were the specific suggestions that dissenting countries made, but it’s believed that dissidents were looking to get assurance from New Delhi on nuclear testing going beyond reiteration of its moratorium.

However, for Indian side a relaxing news came after Thursday meeting, said an NSG official, as not a single country opposed the principle of granting India an exemption.

Reports from Vienna suggest that India, representing by Shiv Shankar Menon accompanied by the PM’s special envoy Shyam Saran and other senior officials of Department of Atomic Energy, forwarded its views to the NSG members to allay their fears by saying it has strict export control regime apart from other measures to guard against transfer of dual-use technology or nuclear fuel to ineligible entities.

US and India were lobbying hard to get NSG exemption by Friday as holding the matter for another meeting, believed to be held not before September, might strengthen the hands of the amendment-seekers and they could form groups to pressure for alteration in the draft which would be unacceptable to India, adamant to get clean NSG waiver.